Library · Machine learning & AI

What Random Forests & Tree Ensembles got wrong, from 73 theses

Summary written by a model from the records below: Researchers frequently evaluated tree ensembles across diverse tabular, spatial, and clinical prediction tasks. While widely adopted, these models often encountered severe difficulties with overfitting, class imbalance, extreme value prediction, and competing against simpler linear baselines. These records come from graduate theses, 2021 to 2026, each labeled with its degree where the repository states it, and each links to its thesis. They were extracted by language models reading the full text, so treat each as a lead to read, not a verdict.

73
theses
29
institutions
77
failure records
8
failure modes

Plus 10 problems the authors left open, listed at the end.

Failure modes, by theses reporting them

Select a mode to jump to its records.

Tree ensembles underperformed simpler linear and parametric models
15
15 theses · 13 institutions · 16 records
Random forests were rejected due to opacity and computational overhead compared to interpretable baselines
15
15 theses · 12 institutions · 15 records
Ensembles suffered severe overfitting and poor generalization on high dimensional or sparse data
10
10 theses · 8 institutions · 10 records
Feature selection and hyperparameter tuning heuristics produced biased or degraded results
9
9 theses · 6 institutions · 9 records
Random forests were outperformed by gradient boosted trees or single decision trees
8
8 theses · 8 institutions · 8 records
Regression trees compressed output variance and failed to predict extreme values or tails
7
7 theses · 7 institutions · 7 records
Tree ensembles struggled with severe class imbalance and rare outcome detection
6
6 theses · 5 institutions · 6 records
Single decision trees suffered from high variance and severe overfitting
6
6 theses · 6 institutions · 6 records

Tree ensembles underperformed simpler linear and parametric models

15 theses · 13 institutions

Researchers found that random forests and tree ensembles frequently failed to beat linear regression, logistic regression, or elastic net baselines across diverse prediction tasks. Simpler models provided comparable or superior predictive accuracy without the added variance and overfitting seen in tree ensembles.

Lost to a baseline

Random forest cross-validation R2 (0.658) lost to simpler multiple linear regression cross-validation R2 (0.733) due to overfitting.

Spatiotemporal patterns of urbanization during the last four decades in Switzerland and their impacts on urban heat islands · EPFL · PhD

Lost to a baseline

Random Forest models exhibited poorer performance and greater subgroup disparities compared to simpler logistic regression models.

The application of machine learning and causal inference to improve suicide outcomes among U.S. veterans: a focus on clinic characteristics · Boston University · PhD

Lost to a baseline

Decision tree predictive R2 (0.436 with DRS, 0.260 without for FPC1) and Random Forest (0.479 / 0.370) were lower than Elastic Net (0.550 / 0.450).

Identifying Risk Factors for Cognitive Decline Using Statistical Learning Techniques and Functional Data Analysis · Saskatchewan · Master's

Lost to a baseline

Random Forest classifier (AUC=0.707) was beaten by standard logistic regression (AUC=0.752)

Prediction of second line treatment using comorbidities and patient characteristics in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients : a machine learning approach · UT Austin · PhD

Lost to a baseline

Random forest regression models did not significantly outperform multiple linear regression, leading to favoring simpler MLR models.

ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND OPERATIONS AND INVESTMENTS IN ITS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY: AN OPEN SOURCE DATA APPROACH · Naval Postgraduate School · Master's

Lost to a baseline

Random Forest trained on RAVDESS+MESD had lower external validity on TESS than simple Linear Regression and Lasso.

Creating Links: Building an Educational Platform to Ask Relevant Questions in Education · MIT · PhD

Tried and failed

random forest classification applied to imbalanced tabular student outcome prediction. Outcome: worse than baseline. Reason: lower AUC and specificity compared to regularised linear models and gradient boosting across imbalanced panels

Using Machine Learning to Advance High School Dropout Prediction and Prevention · Penn · PhD

Tried and failed

random forest classification and survival modeling applied to clinical tabular outcome prediction. Outcome: worse than baseline. Reason: complex machine learning models failed to outperform classical logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards baselines

Prediction of second line treatment using comorbidities and patient characteristics in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients : a machine learning approach · UT Austin · PhD

Tried and failed

Random forests and k-nearest neighbors classification applied to optimization oracle indicator function approximation. Outcome: worse than baseline. Reason: Non-linear classifiers yielded poor generalization accuracy compared to linear baselines like logistic regression.

Consistency in integer programming · Iowa State · PhD

Tried and failed

decision tree classifiers applied to sparse bag-of-words text classification. Outcome: worse than baseline. Reason: decision trees produced poor and inconsistent classification performance compared to logistic regression

Andromeda in Education: Studies on Student Collaboration and Insight Generation with Interactive Dimensionality Reduction · Virginia Tech · Master's

Tried and failed

random forest regression applied to predicting physical parameters from relaxometry data. Outcome: worse than baseline. Reason: non-linear ensemble failed to outperform a simpler quadratic general linear model baseline

Quantitative Microstructural Imaging for Clinical Use · EPFL · PhD

Tried and failed

random forest regression replacing linear mixed-effects models applied to spatial land use regression modeling. Outcome: worse than baseline. Reason: provided no improvement in predictive accuracy over linear mixed-effects regression

Spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic inequalities of noise and sound sources in Accra, Ghana · Imperial · PhD

Lost to a baseline

Random forest (AUC = 0.6345) was outperformed by full logistic regression (AUC = 0.65991) on event status prediction.

ENHANCING NAVAL RETENTION: A STRATEGIC APPROACH TO ALLOCATING SELECTIVE REENLISTMENT BONUSES · Naval Postgraduate School · Master's

Lost to a baseline

Random forest on JDTC data achieved 75.00% test accuracy, beaten slightly by standard logistic regression at 77.08%.

Risk, Need, and Racial Inequality: A Machine Learning Analysis of Rearrest in Juvenile Drug Treatment Courts and Traditional Juvenile Courts · University of Nevada, Reno · PhD

Tried and failed

gradient boosted trees with TF-IDF features applied to short text classification. Outcome: worse than baseline. Reason: linear model handles high-dimensional sparse TF-IDF text features better than decision trees

Urban Housing in the Digital Age: Three Applications of Natural Language Processing · Cornell · PhD

Lost to a baseline

Random forest models including full factor sets failed to outperform simpler multiple linear regression models in explaining variance in evolutionary rate or purifying selection.

The evolution of the angiosperm plastid genome · Oxford · PhD

Random forests were rejected due to opacity and computational overhead compared to interpretable baselines

15 theses · 12 institutions

Authors frequently rejected random forests because they lacked explainability and required substantial computational runtime or memory. In these cases, simpler linear regressions or individual decision trees were selected to maintain transparent feature contributions and lower complexity.

Lost to a baseline

Random Forest classifier consumed approximately 8x more runtime than Decision Trees despite achieving comparable accuracy, precision, and recall.

Dynamic Decomposition and Deployment of the Virtual Network Functions with Microservices using Deep Reinforcement Learning · University College Dublin · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected Random Forest as the final deployed estimator due to lack of interpretability, high memory footprint, and risk of overfitting on small datasets.

Computational Intelligence for Computer-Aided Design Machine Learning Techniques for Microcontrollers Performance Screenings · Politecnico di Torino · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected Random Forest and KNN regression for destination factor mapping in favor of Multiple Linear Regression due to severe overfitting and poor interpretability.

Leveraging the subtle : hidden factors in recommender systems · TU Wien · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected Random Forest classification in mlZ in favor of Decision Trees due to lack of accuracy improvement and increased complexity

Characterizing VNTRs in human populations · Boston University · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Random forest regression rejected in favor of linear regression due to loss of interpretability, poor extrapolation, and inability to handle memory-bound workloads without full target-state counter inputs.

Compute Overlap Stall (COS): Predicting Performance of Power Management for Shared Memory Codes When Throttling Processors, Memory, and Thread Concurrency · Virginia Tech · Master's

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected Random Forest as the final model due to its high complexity and lack of interpretability compared to Decision Trees.

Exploring Phishing Detection Using Search Engine Optimization and Uniform Resource Locator based Information · Dalhousie · Master's

Lost to a baseline

Random Forest model achieved higher classification accuracy (0.92) than the chosen Logistic Regression/LASSO model (>0.80), but Logistic Regression was chosen for interpretability.

The Cost of Decision-Making: Unraveling the Interplay of Memory, Reinforcement Learning, and Neural Connectivity in Decision-Making · University of Washington · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected Random Forest in favor of Logistic Regression due to logistic regression's superior enlisted AUC (0.836 vs 0.695), interpretability/explainability, and reduced computational complexity.

U.S. ARMY RESERVE RETENTION MODELING FOR MID-LEVEL LEADERS · Naval Postgraduate School · Master's

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected random forest and classification tree models in favor of logistic regression because logistic regression provides clearer interpretability for individual variable effects.

PREDICTING MIDSHIPMEN'S OUTCOMES AT THE UNITED STATES NAVAL ACADEMY · Naval Postgraduate School · Master's

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Random forest regression in favor of multiple linear regression due to similar performance and greater simplicity/interpretability of MLR.

ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND OPERATIONS AND INVESTMENTS IN ITS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY: AN OPEN SOURCE DATA APPROACH · Naval Postgraduate School · Master's

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected evaluating genetic algorithm fitness using Random Forest instead of Logistic Regression because Random Forest's inherent feature importance mechanisms mitigate redundancy and obscure individual feature contributions during GA optimization.

Non-Invasive cancer detection: computational applications in liquid biopsy and radiomics · University of Trento · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected standard/complex classifiers (SVMs, Random Forests) for Rim Thickness Curves in glaucoma diagnosis because logistic regression performed equally or better

Leveraging Uncertainties in Medical Prediction Systems · Tübingen · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected using non-linear and random forest models to focus solely on linear logistic regression of binary outcomes.

Modeling Delays in Foreign-Backed Infrastructure Projects: A BRI Case Study on Inequality, Corruption, and Governance · Harvard · Master's

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Tree-based models (such as XGBoost and Random Forests) and Support Vector Machines were rejected in favor of LASSO regression due to multicollinearity issues, extensive hyperparameter tuning requirements, and lack of automatic feature elimination

Tumor Immunogenicity Unlocked: Multi-omics Models Predict Immunotherapy Response and Survival · Tübingen · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected machine learning (neural networks/random forests) due to high false-positive rates and uninterpretable feature explanations.

Development of computational tools for variant calling in single-cell RNAseq · Oxford · PhD

Ensembles suffered severe overfitting and poor generalization on high dimensional or sparse data

10 theses · 8 institutions

Tree models formed noisy decision boundaries and failed to generalize when trained on high dimensional feature sets or sparse datasets. Pretrained or unconstrained tree models experienced severe drops in accuracy when tested on external or hold-out validation cohorts.

Tried and failed

random forest classification on low-dimensional biomarker data applied to disease diagnosis prediction. Outcome: overfit. Reason: models formed discontinuous islands and narrow decision bands fitting training noise

Machine-Learning Aided Diagnosis Of Alzheimer's Disease · UT Austin

Tried and failed

random forest regression applied to oceanic tracer distribution modeling. Outcome: overfit. Reason: prone to overfitting on sparse data and underperformed gradient boosting

Environmental pollution as a marine tracer: measuring and modelling anthropogenic lead in the ocean · Imperial · PhD

Tried and failed

Random forest regression on dynamic response features applied to crack depth prediction in concrete. Outcome: overfit. Reason: High-dimensional feature space on concrete dynamic response data led to significant overfitting.

Machine learning (ml) approaches to model interdependencies between dynamic loads and crack propagation · Cranfield · PhD

Tried and failed

random forest for chemical property prediction applied to mass spectral chromatographic data. Outcome: did not generalise. Reason: pretrained random forest model suffered significant accuracy drop when applied to new experimental chromatographic dataset

A Statistical Methods-Based Novel Approach for Fully Automated Analysis of Chromatographic Data · Virginia Tech · Doctorate

Tried and failed

random forest classification without feature selection applied to high-dimensional molecular descriptor dataset. Outcome: overfit. Reason: training on large number of molecular descriptors without selection led to severe overfitting and poor AUC

Enabling Data-Driven Experimentation for High-Performance Polymer Thin Film Formulations · Georgia Tech · PhD

Lost to a baseline

Random Forest classifier test accuracy dropped more severely (from 0.78 to 0.69) compared to Support Vector Machine (stayed at 0.71) when pruned to top four LIME-selected features due to overfitting on the full feature set.

Multiscale Integration of Cross-Modal Subsurface Data for Reservoir Characterization under Label-Constrained Environments · Georgia Tech · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected complex non-linear regressors (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting) for speech emotion prediction because they overfit the training dataset and sacrificed cross-dataset generalizability.

Creating Links: Building an Educational Platform to Ask Relevant Questions in Education · MIT · PhD

Lost to a baseline

In alternate environment validation, simpler CART and Logistic Regression models (balanced accuracy 79.7% and 78.9%) outperformed Random Forest and AdaBoost models which suffered severe overfitting.

COUNTERING SMALL UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS WITH ADVANCED DATA ANALYSIS AND MACHINE LEARNING · Naval Postgraduate School · Master's

Tried and failed

gradient boosted decision tree classification applied to high-dimensional metabolomics profiles. Outcome: did not generalise. Reason: model failed to perform better than chance on an independent hold-out cohort

DEFINING THE METABOLIC LANDSCAPE OF FIBROLAMELLAR CARCINOMA · Cornell · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected Tree Parzen Estimators and Random Forests as surrogate models in BO under tight computational budgets due to over-partitioning/overfitting with few evaluations

Exploration and Exploitation Techniques for High-Dimensional Simulation-Based Optimization Problems in Urban Transportation · MIT · PhD

Feature selection and hyperparameter tuning heuristics produced biased or degraded results

9 theses · 6 institutions

Impurity-based feature importance exhibited structural bias toward continuous features, and automated tree feature selection underperformed standard linear selection methods. Additionally, hyperparameter grid search and genetic tuning often failed to improve performance or even degraded accuracy relative to untuned models.

Tried and failed

random forest mean decrease in impurity applied to feature importance estimation. Reason: biased toward continuous variables and features with many categories

Automated methods to find high-redshift quasars · Imperial · PhD

Tried and failed

random forest package implementation for probability estimation applied to discrete choice consideration set formation. Outcome: overfit. Reason: Default implementation overfitted severely, assigning nearly perfect probability to observed alternatives unlike Ranger

Endogeneity and consideration-set issues in residential location choice models · Imperial · PhD

Lost to a baseline

Random forest variable selection underperformed simpler stepwise AIC and LASSO regression in variable recovery and discrimination/calibration metrics

Enhancing Survival Prediction Models: Insights on Biomarker Inclusion and Model Updating · Johns Hopkins · Master's

Tried and failed

gradient boosted trees with default hyperparameters applied to weakly supervised anomaly detection. Outcome: overfit. Reason: default tree hyperparameters were overly aggressive for weakly supervised learning labels

LOOKING FOR NEW PHYSICS: FROM DARK MATTER TO MACHINE LEARNING · Cornell · PhD

Tried and failed

untuned random forest with few estimators applied to blood biomarker disease classification. Outcome: worse than baseline. Reason: insufficient ensemble size and lack of hyperparameter tuning caused extremely poor classification performance

Machine-Learning Aided Diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease · UT Austin

Lost to a baseline

Feature selection on gas-phase adiabatic ionization potential using random forest failed to improve performance and slightly worsened ionization potential predictions relative to full feature sets.

Using Data-Driven Models to Understand Transition Metal Catalyst Energy Landscapes and Metal-Organic Framework Stability · MIT · PhD

Tried and failed

random forest hyperparameter tuning via grid search applied to time series error correction. Outcome: overfit. Reason: overemphasized lag-1 features, degrading downstream simulation accuracy and inflating variance

HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION FOR WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT: ADVANCES IN SYNTHETIC FORECASTING AND STOCHASTIC WATERSHED MODELS · Cornell · PhD

Tried and failed

random forest Bayesian optimization for configuration tuning applied to runtime configuration optimization. Outcome: worse than baseline. Reason: direct flag-to-runtime mapping struggled to navigate high-dimensional configuration spaces effectively compared to random search

Accelerating regression testing through test environment tuning · UT Austin · PhD

Lost to a baseline

In Experiment 2, Grid Search and Genetic Algorithm tuning of Random Forest (MSE 0.0061, R2 0.8086) lost to the base untuned Random Forest (MSE 0.0042, R2 0.8158).

Using Data Analytics and Machine Learning in Sustainable Forest Management from Remote Sensing Data · York University · Master's

Random forests were outperformed by gradient boosted trees or single decision trees

8 theses · 8 institutions

Random forest models frequently trailed gradient boosted decision trees like XGBoost and LightGBM in accuracy, runtime efficiency, and subgroup calibration. In other instances, random forests performed substantially worse than simpler individual classification trees.

Lost to a baseline

Random Forest (ensemble method) performed substantially worse than the simpler single Classification Tree, achieving only 42.43% agreement with BorealDB versus CT's 84.88%.

Exploiting Overlapping Landsat Scene Classifications and Focal Context to Identify Boreal Disturbance Mapping Uncertainty · York University · Master's

Lost to a baseline

Random Forest classifier (macro F1-score 0.87, accuracy 0.88) lost to standard Decision Tree classifier (macro F1-score 0.94, accuracy 0.94) on EMG gesture recognition.

EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL OF COMPUTER VISION AND MACHINE LEARNING IN ENHANCING THE FUNCTIONALITY OF AN EMG-CONTROLLED PROSTHETIC HAND · Saskatchewan · Master's

Tried and failed

random forest regression applied to satellite retrieval bias correction. Outcome: worse than baseline. Reason: significantly underperformed gradient boosted decision tree algorithms like LightGBM and XGBoost

Correcting Biases in Satellite Methane Observations: Applications to Landfill Emissions in the United States and Continental-Scale Emissions in Africa · Harvard · PhD

Lost to a baseline

Random Forest (0.519 accuracy) and Bagging Classifier (0.618 accuracy) underperformed compared to simpler Decision Tree (0.994) and Logistic Regression (0.984).

Measuring and Analyzing Community Resilience During COVID-19 Using Social Media · Virginia Tech · Master's

Lost to a baseline

Smooth Random Forest underperformed DPGBDT 1x100 on the HELOC dataset.

A consumer centred investigation of differentially private risk assessment models in consumer credit · Nottingham · PhD

Lost to a baseline

Gradient boosting (Model 4 R2 0.46–0.92) slightly outperformed random forest (Model 3 R2 0.33–0.98).

Small Effect, Big Picture: Understanding the Role of Transposable Elements, Pleiotropy, and Single-Genes on Maize Genetics and Yield · Cornell · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected Decision Trees, Random Forests, Support Vector Machines, Regularized Linear Regression, and Multi-Layer Perceptrons in favor of XGBoost for Hurricast prediction due to lower performance and higher training time.

Multimodal Machine Learning for Climate Adaptation · MIT · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Random forest classifier rejected in favour of XGBoost due to lower test accuracy and inferior prediction calibration across SES and gender subgroups

Understanding Student Outcomes: The Role of Background, Gender, and Schools in Irish Education · University College Dublin · PhD

Regression trees compressed output variance and failed to predict extreme values or tails

7 theses · 7 institutions

Random forest regressions systematically under-predicted low values and over-predicted high values, compressing output variance near distribution extremes. Techniques like tail oversampling failed to resolve prediction smoothing, leading to severe biases and poor probability calibration near extreme thresholds.

Tried and failed

random forest regression on continuous clinical scores applied to blood biomarker disease severity prediction. Reason: compressed output variance caused regression to fail at extreme values, resulting in high false positives

Machine-Learning Aided Diagnosis Of Alzheimer's Disease · UT Austin

Tried and failed

indirect mapping predicting multi-item components via random forests applied to health-related utility score estimation. Reason: systematically under-predicted low scores and over-predicted high scores, inflating the overall predicted mean

DEVELOPING BETTER TREATMENT FOR ALCOHOL USE DISORDERS WITH THREE TOOLS: DECISION THEORY, BIG DATA, AND MACHINE LEARNING · Cornell · PhD

Tried and failed

random forests with tail oversampling and residual fitting applied to extreme value exceedance prediction. Reason: techniques were ineffective at resolving tail smoothing in predictions

Data-Driven Methods for Modeling Emissions and Atmospheric Composition · Harvard · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected using Random Forest models in favor of XGBoost due to extreme computational overhead and boundary overfitting.

Spatial Modeling for Building Design Evaluation: from Visual Landscape Quality Assessment to Devaluation Risk Estimation · EPFL · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Decided against Random Forests for surrogate modeling because of large prediction errors on sampled points and lack of reliable predictive variance estimates.

Accelerating HLS Autotuning of Large, Highly-parameterized Reconfigurable SoC Mappings · Penn · PhD

Tried and failed

random forest probability estimation applied to molecular synthetic accessibility prediction. Reason: uncalibrated models yielded poor probability estimates near extreme thresholds

Discovery of synthesisable organic materials · Imperial · PhD

Tried and failed

direct execution time prediction with random forest applied to database query execution time modeling. Outcome: overfit. Reason: over-optimized slow queries at the expense of fast ones; predicting decomposed weight parameters was required

Building Instance Aware Systems using Explicit Performance Modeling · MIT · PhD

Tree ensembles struggled with severe class imbalance and rare outcome detection

6 theses · 5 institutions

Under severe class imbalance, tree models produced noisy predictions with low recall and poor specificity compared to parametric baselines. Feature selection pipelines with boosted trees discarded weakly predictive signals that were essential for detecting rare target classes.

Lost to a baseline

Random forest demographic-only model yielded an artifactually high sensitivity of 0.308 due to rare outcome imbalances, performing erratically compared to logistic regression baselines.

PREDICTING SUICIDE: UTILITY OF SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH AND ACCESS DATA · Johns Hopkins · Doctorate

Lost to a baseline

Non-parametric models (Random Forest and XGBoost) were outperformed by simpler parametric models (Logistic Regression and LDA) in sensitivity and balanced accuracy when using synthetic resampling (e.g., LR achieved 0.60 sensitivity vs RF 0.32 and XGBoost 0.36 under SMOTE).

Evaluating Factors Contributing to Crash Severity Among Older Drivers: Statistical Modeling and Machine Learning Approaches · Virginia Tech · Doctorate

Lost to a baseline

Logit model achieved higher specificity (0.876) on unbalanced rCSI test data than Random Forest (0.348) and XGBoost (0.627)

Essays in Applied Economics Linking Policy, Obesity, and Health Economics · Texas Tech · PhD

Tried and failed

gradient boosted decision trees classification applied to imbalanced fine-grained time-series state prediction. Reason: severe class imbalance produced noisy, scattered predictions with low precision and recall

Understanding and Predicting Sit-Stand Desk Usage Patterns and Willingness among Knowledge Workers: A Data-Driven Approach · Virginia Tech · Master's

Lost to a baseline

Traditional Random Forest and Gradient-Boosted Trees suffered from lower recall (0.304 and 0.607, respectively) on HCM classification with CMR features compared to SVM-RBF (0.857) due to class imbalance.

Interpretable machine learning models for investigating and pre-screening cardiomyopathies with high-dimensional genomic and imaging data · Imperial · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected machine learning approaches (decision trees and random forest) for sensor-drone assignment due to poor constraint handling, class imbalance, and lack of generalizability

Development of a Natural Disaster Information System for RPAS Mission Planning and Monitoring · Queen's University · PhD

Single decision trees suffered from high variance and severe overfitting

6 theses · 6 institutions

Individual decision and regression trees repeatedly overfitted training data and produced unstable decision thresholds across experimental environments. Researchers consequently rejected standalone trees, choosing instead to implement ensemble methods or constrained models to lower variance.

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected single decision tree modeling due to overfitting on training data, favoring random forest models.

The doctrine of marginal gains in prostate cancer; testing improvement philosophy with multiple randomised interventions. · Imperial · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected using regression trees alone for predictor generation because regression trees are prone to overfitting and lack the predictive accuracy of random forest regressions.

A Gene-Enviornment Approach To Predicting A Depressive Symptom Severity Phenotype Among Young Adults With A History Of Adverse Childhood Experiences · Penn · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Single decision trees (CART) were rejected in favor of random forests due to over-fitting tendencies.

PREDICTING SELF-HARM AND IDENTIFYING CAUSAL RISK FACTORS AMONG ADOLESCENTS WHO HAVE HAD CONTACT WITH U.S. CHILD PROTECTIVE SERVICES · Johns Hopkins · PhD

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Decision tree learning for generalized model development (due to producing variable behavioral thresholds that were overfitted to individual runways)

Incorporation of Causal Factors Affecting Pilot Motivation for Improvement of Airport Runway and Exit Design Modeling · Virginia Tech · Master's

Considered and rejected

Considered and rejected: Rejected single decision trees due to high variance and overfitting, implementing an ensemble Random Forest with constrained tree depth instead.

Combining multiple observations to improve our understanding of forest-snow interactions and inform forest management · University of Washington · PhD

Lost to a baseline

Single Decision Tree for HEA phase classification achieved only 67.16% mean CV accuracy, trailing Gradient Boosting (72.99%).

Accelerated Data-Driven Design of Multi-Component Chemistries for Enhanced Mechanical Performance · University at Buffalo · PhD

Left open by the authors

Problems the authors named and did not get to.

Left open

Perform a grid search over hyperparameter space instead of random search for the Random Forest and XGBoost Alzheimer's diagnosis models. Blocker: Access to the underlying clinical biomarker dataset used in the thesis.

Machine-Learning Aided Diagnosis Of Alzheimer's Disease · UT Austin

Left open

Evaluate varying decision tree depths and random forest models for embedding subspace mapping in neural network generalization prediction. Blocker: None

DEPENDABLE NEURAL NETWORKS FOR SAFETY CRITICAL TASKS · Johns Hopkins · PhD

Left open

Prospectively test decision tree and random forest models across diverse healthcare systems to evaluate clinical efficacy in childhood genetic epilepsy. Blocker: Requires prospective clinical deployment and access to private electronic medical record data across multiple healthcare systems.

Quantitative Informatics Approaches to Characterize and Predict Childhood Genetic Epilepsies · Penn · PhD

Left open

Evaluate statistical and systematic uncertainty behaviors under Random Forest, SVM, and deep neural network models on student response coding datasets. Blocker: Access to private student physics response datasets used in the thesis.

Evaluating language models applied to student thinking about experiments · Cornell · PhD

Left open

Benchmark healthcare capital project performance by evaluating Random Forests, KNN, and DEA grouping algorithms on larger datasets. Blocker: Requires larger proprietary or restricted healthcare capital project BIM and performance datasets

Novel approaches to benchmark capital project performance : an application to healthcare projects · UT Austin · PhD

Left open

Develop online prediction for the random forest framework in aerodynamic shape optimization and test alternative architectures like GNN, RNN, and GAN. Blocker: Lack of specific evaluation metrics, clear baseline integration details, or designated datasets for the proposed alternative ML architectures.

Multifidelity machine learning methods for flow field prediction and aerodynamic shape optimization · Iowa State · PhD

Left open

Implement decision trees or random forests to combine covert channel detection statistical tests instead of logistic regression. Blocker: None

Real-Time Detection of Storage Covert Channels · Carleton University · Master's

Left open

Evaluate the reduced feature subsets produced by the fuzzy feature selection methods using classifiers like SVM and Random Forest. Blocker: None

An investigation of fuzzy methods and meta learning for feature selection · Nottingham · PhD

Left open

Evaluate alternative surrogate models and acquisition functions beyond Random Forest and Expected Improvement for tuning LSM trees in Onix. Blocker: None

Dynamically tuning LSM tree based databases · Boston University · Master's

Left open

Benchmark co-segregation-based Bayesian linear regression feature selection against standard methods like PCA and random forests for microbial phenotypic GWAS. Blocker: None

Probing Genomic, Metabolic, And Phenotypic Evolution In Microbes Using Comparative And Experimental Evolution Data · Georgia Tech · PhD

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